Experts question census projections

Nurul Islam Hasib
bdnews24.com senior correspondent

Dhaka, July 16 (bdnews24.com) ? Bangladesh is now more crowded than ever before as the preliminary results of the 5th Population and Housing Census 2011 showed 17.964 million people adding in the last decade in the densely-populated country.

With 14.4 percent increase in the size of population, 964 people live in every square kilometer.

The results on Saturday showed the country's total population at 142.319 million on March 15, comprising an almost equal number of males and females ? 71.255million and 71.064 million.

It also suggested that the population was growing at a rate of 1.34 percent annually, 0.24 percentage point decline from the 2001's 1.58 percent. The growth rate put the country at fourth spot in the region's lower population growing countries ? Thailand, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and Malaysia.

With 2.1 percent, Sylhet has the highest growth rate followed by Dhaka, 1.8 percent and Chittagong 1.4 percent, while Barisal's population growth rate is zero.

With 8,111 people living every square kilometre, Dhaka is the most densely-populated district, while Bandarban is at the other extreme with only 86 people every square kilometre.

The number of households stands at 32.068 million, with average 4.4 people constituting one household.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) that conducts census 10 years apart, the total population was 124.355 million in the 2001 preliminary results when 834 people lived in every square kilometre.

However, the preliminary results took many by surprise, as experts have long claimed that little headway has been made in limiting the population boom and BBS lacks 'competency' to hold a census 'efficiently'.

Releasing the key results in the capital, planning minister AK Khandker said the next step, post-enumeration quality check (PEC), would eliminate the errors before the final counts are released by November this year.

"BIDS (Bangladesh Institute of Development Statistics) has been assigned the task to prepare a neutral and acceptable PEC to determine the coverage and content errors of the census," he told journalists amidst a volley of questions on the quality of the process.

Reports of many people left uncounted during the census conducted between March 15 and March 19 had hit the headlines.

Census' project director Ashim Kumar Dey said, "We presented what we got ? right or wrong."

Md Shahjahan Ali Mollah, director general of BBS, said it is the most quality census in the history. "We learnt many things from previous mistakes," he said.

Population expert Ahmed-al Sabir, consultant, USA based Measure Evaluation, described BBS' efforts as 'positive'.

"Earlier they took long time to release the preliminary findings, but this time they did it in time," he told bdnews24.com, suggesting 'careful adjustment of the final counts after PEC'.

AKM Nurun Nabi, professor of population, Dhaka University, said the preliminary results were not up to their expectations. "We did not get any idea about the urban and rural population pattern. I am also surprised seeing the equal sex ratio."

The BBS director general said the last decade saw over 4 million people migrating to overseas, which was higher than in the previous 30 years.

"Ninety-eight percent of those migrants are males," he argued to prove his point that the projected male-female ratio is 'surprising'.

"We will wait until the final counts," Prof Nabi said suggesting accurate PEC for quality counts.

Ensuring reliable data, the director general said the US Census Bureau is providing modern software and scanners, while the European Union and UNFPA are giving financial assistance, apart from those coming from the government.

The enumerators went door to door to collect data from people who stayed in Bangladesh during that period. At night, they counted floating people.

Foreigners who stayed during that time in Bangladesh were also counted, as they used 'de facto census' method.

But the results did not present any count of foreigners in the country.

Bangladesh has a long history of census. The first one was conducted in 1872. Since then census has been conducted every 10 years.

After the independence, the first population and housing census was held in 1974, when the preliminary results projected country's population at 71.48 million. The adjusted population was 76.40 million.

The final results will provide population size, growth, composition and distribution of the projection of food, education, infrastructure, employment, healthcare and assessment of various other basic requirements as well as analysis of past, present and future growth of population.

Based on the 2011 census, the Election Commission will update the electoral rolls for all national and local elections.

Experts suggest Barisal's zero growth rate deserves further in-depth analysis, as BBS in its report claims migration from the natural calamity-prone Barisal division was the reason for the no growth rate.

POPULATION CHANGE BY DIVISION

?Dhaka's population increased from 39.05 million to 46.73 million with 1.8 percent average annual growth rate
?Sylhet's population went up from 7.94 million to 9.8 million with 2.1 percent growth rate
?Chittagong's population was up from 24.29 million to 28.08 million at 1.4 percent rate
?Barisal's population decreased from 8.17 million to 8.15 million at zero annual growth.
?Khulna's population rose from 14.70 million to 15.56 million at 0.6 percent
?Rajshahi's population increased from 13.85 million to 15.66 million at 1.2 percent
?Rangpur's population growth was from 13.85 million to 15.66 million at 1.2 percent annual growth.

bdnews24.com/nih/nir/2100h

View the original article here