Myanmar under pressure at Asia security forum

AFP, Phuket

Military-ruled Myanmar is set to face renewed pressure over its trial of Aung San Suu Kyi when foreign ministers and diplomats from Asia, Washington and Europe meet this week, analysts say.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning democracy leader faces up to five years in jail on charges of breaching her house arrest after a bizarre incident in which an American man swam to her lakeside residence in May.
The ruling junta has defied international outrage about her trial and dealt a humiliating snub to UN chief Ban Ki-moon by refusing to allow him to visit the opposition figurehead when he visited the country earlier this month.
The issue is set to be a major topic on the agenda of the 27-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum, the region's biggest security dialogue, and associated meetings starting Sunday.
The presence of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will also add to the pressure on Myanmar's ruling generals, while China, the junta's key backer, will also be at the forum.
But historically there has been little that anyone can do to force the regime's hand, said Bridget Welsh, an associate professor of political science at the Singapore Management University. "Most certainly Clinton's presence will build pressure, but pressure alone has proven not to be effective. The aim should be to broaden the dialogue with the region to allow for more points of discussion," Welsh told AFP.
The 10-member ASEAN spoke out strongly against the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi but has faced international criticism in the past for failing to take on Myanmar, the most troublesome member of the bloc. Welsh recommended that ASEAN take a carrot-and-stick approach. "ASEAN has little traction on this issue. It needs to continue to illustrate its concerns for the issue of the trial and political pressure, while simultaneously engaging in the area of humanitarian relief," she said.
"ASEAN needs to maintain communication with the region through the network it has deepened over the last few years", including its assistance following deadly Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in May 2008. The international community has however struggled to find any leverage with Myanmar's military, which has ruled the country since 1962 and kept Aung San Suu Kyi in detention for most of the last two decades.
Her party won the country's last elections in 1990 but was never allowed to take office. Critics say her trial is a way for the junta to keep her locked up for elections promised by the junta in 2010. The elections will be held under a widely criticised constitution voted in just days after Nargis, which provides a major role for the military in any government and bars Aung San Suu Kyi from standing.